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Research Employing IEM Data

  • Beckmann, K. and M. Werding, "'Passauer Wahlborse' Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, 49, 1996, 171-205.

  • Berg, JE., R. Forsythe and TA. Rietz (1997) "The Iowa Electronic Market." In D Paxson and D Wood (eds) Blackwell Encyclopedic Dictionary of Finance. Blackwell, Oxford UK.

  • Berg, JE, R Forsythe, FD Nelson and TA Rietz, 2001, “ Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research,” forthcoming in CA Plott and V Smith (Eds) Handbook of Experimental Economic Results.

  • Berg, JE, R. Forsythe and TA. Rietz (1996) "What Makes Markets Predict Well? Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets." In W Albers, W Güth, P Hammerstein, B Moldovanu and E van Damme (eds.), Understanding Strategic Interaction: Essays in Honor of Reinhard Selten, , New York: Springer, 444-463.

  • Berg, JE, FD Nelson and TA Rietz, (2003) “Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets,” Working Paper, Tippie College of Business.

  • Berg, JE and TA. Rietz (2003) "Longshots, Overconfidence, and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Markets." Working Paper, Tippie College of Business.

  • Berg, JE and TA. Rietz (2003) "Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems." Information Systems Frontiers, 2003, 79-93.

  • Berlemann, M and FD Nelson, (2002) "Forecasting Inflation via Electronic Markets: Results from a Prototype Experiment", Mimeo, Dresden University of Technology and Tippie College of Business.

  • Bohm, P. and J. Sonnegård, "Hur gick det för EU-börsen?" Economist Debatt, 1995, 111-121.

  • Bohm, P. and J. Sonnegård, "Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 101, 1999, 205-222.

  • Bondarenko, O., and P. Bossarts (1999) "Expectations and Learning in Iowa", Mimeo, California Institute of Technology, Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.

  • Brüggelambert, G. (1998) "'Passauer Wahlbörse': A comment." Mimeo, University GH Essen, Essen, Germany.

  • Brüggelambert, G. (2004) "Information and Efficiency In Political Stock Markets: Using Computerized Markets To Predict Election Results," Applied Economics, 36, 753-768.

  • Brüggelambert, G. and A. Crüger (2002) "Election Markets: Experiences from a Complex Market Experiment," in "Surveys in Experimental Economics: Bargaining, Cooperation and Election Stock Markets", F Bolle and M Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Eds., Physica-Verlag, 167-191.

  • Davis, R. Forsythe and C. Holt, "The 1994 Virginia Senate Market," University of Virginia Economics Department working paper. May 1995.

  • Dufwenberg, M. and B. Stoltz, "How did the Cash Price Affect the EU-referendum Political Stock Market? Comment to Bohm and Sonnegård", ("Hur påverkade penningpriset EU-börsen? Kommentar till Bohm & Sonnegård"). Ekonomisk Debatt, 1995/4, 356-8.

  • Dufwenberg, M. and B. Stoltz, "The EU-referendum's Cash Price and the Price Setting of BLANK-Shares: Reply to Bohm and Sonnegård", ("EU-börsens penningpris och BLANK-aktiekursens förändring: Replik till Bohm & Sonnegårds svar"), Ekonomisk Debatt, 1995/5, 431-2.

  • Forsythe, R., M. Frank, V. Krishnamurthy and T. Ross (1998) "Markets as Predictors of Election Outcomes: Campaign Events and Judgement Bias in the 1993 UBC Election Stock Market." Canadian Public Policy, 24:329-351.

  • Forsythe, R., M. Frank, V. Krishnamurthy and T. Ross (1995) "Using Market Prices to Predict Election Results: The 1993 UBC Election Stock Market." Canadian Journal of Economics, 28:770-793.

  • Forsythe, R., F. Nelson, GR. Neumann and J. Wright (1992) "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market." American Economic Review, 82:1142-1161.

  • Forsythe, R., F. Nelson, G. Neumann and J. Wright, "The Explanation and Prediction of Presidential Elections: A Market Alternative to Polls," in Laboratory Research in Political Economy, T. R. Palfrey, ed., University of Michigan Press, 1991, 69-112.

  • Forsythe, R., F. Nelson, GR. Neumann and J. Wright (1991) "Forecasting Elections: A Market Alternative to Polls", in TR Palfrey (ed) Contemporary Laboratory Experiments in Political Economy, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 69-111.

  • Forsythe, R,. F. Nelson, GR. Neumann and J. Wright (1993) "The Iowa Political Stock Markets." Mimeo, University of Iowa.

  • Forsythe,R., F. Nelson, G. Neumann and J. Wright, "The 1992 Iowa Political Stock Market: September Forecasts," The Political Methodologist, 5 (Spring-Summer 1994), 15-19.

  • Forsythe, R., TA. Rietz and TW. Ross (1999) "Wishes, Expectations and Actions: Price Formation in Election Stock Markets.", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 39,1999, 83-110.

  • Fowler, James H. (2006) "Elections and Markets: The Effect of Partisan Orientation, Policy Risk, and Electoral Margins on the Economy", Journal of Politics,

  • Gomme, Paul. "Iowa Electronic Markets" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, April 15th, 2003.

  • Gruca, Thomas (2000), "The IEM Movie Box Office Market Integrating Marketing and Finance using Electronic Markets, Journal of Marketing Education, 22: 5-14.

  • Herron M., J. Lavin, C. Cram and J. Silver,(1999) "Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy, "A Study of the 1992 United States Presidential Election," Economics and Politics, 10: 51-81

  • Jacobsen, B., J. Potters, A. Schram, F. van Winden and J. Wit (1995) "'(In)accuracy of a European Political Stock Market: The Influence of Common Value Structures." European Economic Review, 44: 205-230.

  • Knight, Brian, "Are Policy Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," NBER Working Paper No. 10333, March 2004.
  • Kuon,B., "Typical Trading Behavior in the German Election Markets 1990, University of Bonn Department of Economics working paper, December 1991.

  • Lombardo,R., "The Australian Political Stock Market: A Market Approach to Political Poll Prediction," Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology Department of Economics working paper, October 1993.

  • Nelson, FD and R Tietz, 2001, "Expectations and Rational Actions in an Experimental Financial Market", in "Surveys in Experimental Economics: Bargaining, Cooperation and Election Stock Markets", F Bolle and M Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Eds., Physica-Verlag.

  • Oliven, K., and TA. Rietz (1995) "Suckers are Born but Markets are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market." Mimeo, Department of Finance, University of Iowa.

  • Ortner, G. (1998) "Forecasting Markets: An Industrial Application." Mimeo, Technical University of Vienna.

  • Ortner, G., A. Stepan and J. Zechner (1995) "Political Stock Markets: The Austrian Experience." ZfB Ergänzungsband, 4/95: 123-136.

  • Ortner ,G.,and A. Stepan, "Political Stock Market Experiments," Technical University Vienna working paper, 1995.

  • Shaw, D. and B. Roberts (2000), "Campaign Events, the Media and the Prospects of Victory The 1992 and 1996 US Presidential Elections," British Journal of Political Science, 259-293.

  • Simkins, S., "Promoting Active-Student Learning Using the World Wide Web in Economics Courses", Journal of Economic Education, Summer 1999, 278-291.

  • Slemrod, J., and T. Greimel, (1999) "Did Steve Forbes Scare the Municipal Bond Market?" Journal of Public Economics, 74: 81-96.

HOW CAN I LEARN MORE ABOUT THE IEM?

You can read our general description of the IEM, or you can access our Trader's Manual.

You may also send an e-mail to iem@uiowa.edu or contact us by U.S. Mail at:

Iowa Electronic Markets
W283 PBAB
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242