Memoirs of an Indifferent Trader: Estimating Forecast Distributions from Prediction Markets

Joyce E. Berg, John Geweke and Thomas A. Rietz
Working Paper
Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa

• Complete Draft of Paper
• On Line Appendix Only
• PowerPoint Animations of Prior Elections (page up goes back and pauses; click on slide to continue).
  • Animation of the 1992 Presidential Election
  • Animation of the 1996 Presidential Election
  • Animation of the 2000 Presidential Election
  • Animation of the 2004 Presidential Election
• Real-Time Distributions for the 2008 Presidential Election