Iowa Electronic Markets
Pres04_WTA
2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market


Kerry versus Bush Aggregate Probabilities*

Produced by: Iowa Electronic Markets, University of Iowa Tippie College of Business

*Contracts were split on September 21 2004. This graph shows the sum of the two Republican contract prices (that sum represents the probability that Bush will receive the most popular vote) and the sum of the two Democrat contract prices (that sum represents the probability that Kerry will receive the most popular vote).


Individual Contract Prices**

Produced by: Iowa Electronic Markets, University of Iowa Tippie College of Business

**Contract definitions
       DEM04_G52:   Kerry receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
       DEM04_L52:   Kerry receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
       REP04_L52:   Bush receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
       REP04_G52:   Bush receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote


These graphs are also available in flash format with the datapoints annotated, or in a simple jpg format.

  • Graph in Flash format (this image may take a few seconds to load)
  • Graph in JPG format (use this link is you are unable to see the graph above)